TL;DR: The Equalities Watchdog has provided its updated code of practice to the government, leaving it with ministers to approve it and turn it into statutory guidance - a decision which would be challenged in the courts.
The EHRC has provided its draft of a new code of practice to ministers, which now sits with them to either accept or disapprove.
Reports in The Times suggest the Equality and Human Rights Commission has stuck by its initial analysis of the Supreme Court ruling and advises enforcing segregation of Trans+ people from public single-sex spaces.
The paper reports it also goes further, saying that if services remain Trans+ inclusive in protest to the ban, they could be liable to being sued by cisgender people on the basis of sex discrimination.
Campaign group Trans+ Solidarity Alliance have said that if Labour allow this to pass through unchallenged, it will define their legacy on LGBT+ rights:
"The EHRC has approached this process with one goal - reducing the human rights of trans people in this country. It has rushed through 50,000 consultation responses with the help of AI, subverting our Equality Act and turning it into a trans bathroom ban.
"It's up to the Government what happens next, Bridget Phillipson could fix this mess tomorrow. Waving this through this would be Labour's Section 28 moment."
Meanwhile an FOI from campaign group TACC has revealed that the report that justifies the changes to the code of practice will not be released until after MPs have made their decisions on it a move the group says is an effort to stifle criticism.
Analysis - what happens next?
Due to the nature of the statutory instruments involved in the matter, the next step is for the code to go to the Secretary General to see if they agree that the EHRC's planned guidance doesn't break the law.
After this, the Equalities Minister will present it to parliament, starting a 40-day 'lay' period after which it will automatically become law.
The only way to prevent the code automatically becoming law is if a significant number of MPs support a motion to 'disapprove' it.
Analysis - why tell us on a Friday?
This is not the first time we've heard news from the EHRC via The Times, and on a Friday.
The timing disarms the LGBTQIA+ sector from responding to it as they head into the weekend.
In that absence, what will ensue is a weekend of newspaper punditry, clickbait and commentary shows, before the EHRC’s opponents can even get their head around it.
This solidifies a narrative in public opinion, which then becomes harder to counter.
Analysis - Could a Labour reshuffle delay any of this?
The story also dropped an hour before Angela Raynor announced she was stepping down as Deputy PM amid intense focus on her tax affairs.
Keir Starmer already enacted a small reshuffle of his top staff this week, but her exit from the role has sparked a wider reshuffle and could even leave us with a new Equalities Minister.
Any hope that this might result in a change in approach unfortunately seems unlikely, as the backroom shuffle this week saw the Head of Communications role taken by Tim Allan, who is a Sex Matters trustee.
This cements the already a clear, broad intention from Labour on where they stand on Trans+ rights: firmly on the side of gender-critical activists.
Analysis - Could it be challenged in the courts?
The short answer is yes and it looks like it will be challenged.
The Good Law Project’s founder Jolyon Maugham posted to say “The draft is cruel; there is no evidence it will better protect women, cis or trans; it breaches Labour's manifesto commitment to trans people; it is unenforceable; encourages vigilanteism; and it is clearly inconsistent with the UK's obligations under the ECHR. We will challenge it in court.”
It’s clear that the short consultation period, the use of AI, and evidence of ideologically driven motives could all be the basis of any action.
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